研究人员分别在三个不同的前瞻性队列中:匹兹堡糖尿病并发症流行病学研究 (EDC, USA, n=554)、芬兰糖尿病肾病研究 (FinnDiane, Finland, n=2,999)和1型糖尿病研究中的冠状动脉分类(CACTI, USA, n=580),检测了该模型的性能。在对一些队列中主要并发症的预测性和观察性因素之间的系统差异进行校正后,该模型能够准确地预测患者的风险。作者称:“该模型能够很好地将表现主要并发症的患者和不会表现主要并发症的患者,区分开来。在收集关于患者年龄、糖化血红蛋白、腰臀比、白蛋白-肌酐比值和高密度脂蛋白胆固醇的信息后,健康保健专业人员可将这些信息,输入到所提供的评分表中,它将自动算出1型糖尿病患者主要并发症的3、5和7年绝对风险。”
生物通推荐原文摘要: Predicting major outcomes in type 1 diabetes: a model development and validation study Abstract Aims/hypothesis: Type 1 diabetes is associated with a higher risk of major vascular complications and death. A reliable method that predicted these outcomes early in the disease process would help in risk classification. We therefore developed such a prognostic model and quantified its performance in independent cohorts. Methods: Data were analysed from 1,973 participants with type 1 diabetes followed for 7 years in the EURODIAB Prospective Complications Study. Strong prognostic factors for major outcomes were combined in a Weibull regression model. The performance of the model was tested in three different prospective cohorts: the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications study (EDC, n=554), the Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy study (FinnDiane, n=2,999) and the Coronary Artery Calcification in Type 1 Diabetes study (CACTI, n=580). Major outcomes included major CHD, stroke, end-stage renal failure, amputations, blindness and all-cause death. Results: A total of 95 EURODIAB patients with type 1 diabetes developed major outcomes during follow-up. Prognostic factors were age, HbA1c, WHR, albumin/creatinine ratio and HDL-cholesterol level. The discriminative ability of the model was adequate, with a concordance statistic (C-statistic) of 0.74. Discrimination was similar or even better in the independent cohorts, the C-statistics being: EDC, 0.79; FinnDiane, 0.82; and CACTI, 0.73. Conclusions/interpretation: Our prognostic model, which uses easily accessible clinical features can discriminate between type 1 diabetes patients who have a good or a poor prognosis. Such a prognostic model may be helpful in clinical practice and for risk stratification in clinical trials.